The NCAA Tournament tips-off today. Below is a look at four of the early afternoon matchups for Thursday. SETON HALL vs. WICHITA STATE (-3, 124) 12:20 pm ET My overall power ratings favor Wichita State by 3 points and both squads should be focused as they enter off a SU loss. Seton Hall struggled down the stretch, going just 2-4 SU/ATS in their final six games, including an outright loss to Rutgers, 48-61, in the opening round of the Big East tournament as a 1-point favorite. Seton Hall has not played for seven days and Wichita State has not played for eleven days. The Shockers finished first in the Missouri Valley regular season with a 14-4 SU record and were first in the conference in field-goal defense (39.1%) and three-point defense (30.9%). PACIFIC vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (-7 , 134 ) 12:40 pm ET Boston College is in a difficult scheduling situation as the Eagles must travel across the country and play in the thin air and altitude of Salt Lake City, Utah. Fatigue could definitely be a factor as the Eagles are playing their fourth game in seven days after a hard fought loss versus Duke in the ACC Finals last weekend. Pacific dominated a weak Big West conference and won both the regular season and conference tournament championships. Pacific is 13-1 SU over their past fourteen games, but they have played an extremely weak schedule this season. Overall, Pacific ranked 88th in the RPI and were just 2-3 SU versus Top-100 clubs, while Boston College was 11-6 SU versus Top-100 with a solid RPI of 22. Overall, my power ratings favor Boston College by just 5 points, so this line does seem a bit inflated. ALABAMA vs. MARQUETTE (-2 , 136) 2:40 pm ET Both teams have been stronger at home than on the road this season as Marquette went 14-2 SU at home, but just 6-8 SU on the road, while Alabama was 14-4 SU at home, but just 3-8 SU away. My overall power ratings favor Marquette by 2 points and both teams enter this game off a loss and needed at-large bids to ensure a spot in the tournament. Marquette has a RPI of 31, while Alabamas RPI was a weaker 56; however the Crimson Tide actually fared better versus tough competition, going 5-5 SU versus Top-50 opponents, while Marquette was just 3-6 SU versus Top-50 opposition. These clubs also faced three common opponents in Notre Dame, South Carolina, and Winthrop. Marquette fared better in these games with a 3-1 SU record, winning by an average margin of +1.5 points per game and outshooting their opponent 46.3 to 42.6 percent on average. Meanwhile, Alabama was just 1-2 SU versus those same common opponents and the Tide was outscored by -5.0 points per game and outshot 44.4 to 44.8 percent overall. WINTHROP vs. TENNESSEE (-6 , 140) 2:40 pm ET Tennessee is a questionable #2 seed; however the committee members evened things out by pitting them against a very dangerous #15 seed. Winthrop is a veteran squad that returns all five starters from last years squad that fought hard against Gonzaga in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee is just 1-3 SU/ATS in their past four games, but the Volunteers should be extra focused after losing in the first round of the SEC tournament. High seeds off a SU loss usually perform well, but the line is a bit inflated as my overall power ratings favor Tennessee by just 6 points. Both clubs depend heavily on the three-point shot and Winthrop has a better perimeter defense as they allowed just 31.9% (versus opponents that averaged 34.0%), while Tennessee permitted 36.0% from long range (versus opponents that averaged just 35.3% overall). |
