It wont be long now. In just two years we will be promised once more that the so-called Youth Vote will hand the American Government to the Democrats. Well be told that young voters are fed up, that they are ready for change, and that they are motivated.

And once again, it wont mean diddlysquat.

Youth Vote commandos gave it their best shot during the 2004 campaign. The regular miscalculations were made, such as claims that 18-24-year-olds would be a driving force for change in America. Scare tactics were also employed, like Rock The Votes Youve Been Drafted message, which warned young people that real cards may be in the mail soon if the situation doesnt improve.

The tactics seemed to be paying off. In a September 2004 MTV/Circle poll, as many as 80% of young voters signaled an intention to vote in the general election.

Despite the poll just weeks earlier, voter turnout for 18-24-year-olds lagged behind the overall turnout by 17 percentage points. 47% of young voters turned out in 2004, a gain of 11 percentage points over 2000, but a far cry from the 80% promised by the September poll. The gains were overshadowed by the overall turnout, which surged to 64% of all registered voters.

Though they often claim impartiality, many get out the youth vote organizations concentrate on mobilizing left-leaning young people during their campaigns. Scare tactics such as Rock The Votes Draft Card seemed to have the desired effectas many as half of the voters aged 18-24 believed there would be a draftbut unlike predictions to the contrary, those groups efforts did not translate into getting liberal youth to the polls in substantially greater numbers than other demographic groups.

2004 exit polls show that of voters under the age of 30, 37% identified themselves as Democrat and 35% identified themselves as Republican. Either conservatives were nearly as successful as liberals at getting their youth vote out or legions of these young liberal voters we were warned about just stayed home as they usually do.

There does not seem to be much public mobilization of the youth vote for the upcoming midterm elections, so it is doubtful we will see voting trends look much different than the last midterm election in 2002, where 18% of the youth voted compared to 21% of all registered voters.

But even if the youth advocates dont come out in full force for the midterms, you can count on them making their baseless projections in 2008. Though youth voting was up in 2004 from 2000, there is little evidence to suggest that the upswing was an actual trend rather than simply a spike as was the case 1992 when a similar percentage of young voters turned out.

Judging from the data, it is difficult to argue that the youth vote has had much of an affect on elections in recent years. It is more likely that the youth trend with the population in general; when more overall voters are motivated to vote you see more youth motivated to vote as well. Claims that the youth vote in an election will be decisive in determining an elections outcome remain dubious.

Furthermore, its unclear what tactics the get-out-the-youth-vote groups will have at their disposal in 2008. Theyve already played the Draft Card so to speak, so that kind of fear mongering will be more difficult to push this time around. Hopefully, with the armed forces consistently meeting or beating their recruiting goals in the All Volunteer Force, more of 2008s youth will recognize such tactics for what they are than did 2004s youth.

Efforts to inform young voters of the importance of participating in the political process are worthy of praise when they honestly focus on instilling civic virtue into our young people. Whether they claim impartiality or not, they ought to stay away from grandiose predictions of decisive youth turnout trends, since the informed observer need only look into past claims to reveal their lack of veracity.